Qualifying analysis

Jenson should pit on lap 20 or 21, while Kimi is scheduled for lap 18. The real loser in quali was Vettel who is super light (lap 12) and was aiming to get pole and then pull out a big gap before pitting. Instead, he got baulked by Nakajima on his flier.

Lewis Hamilton came unstuck when he lost control and thwacked his car into the tyre wall. He'll start a miserable 16th. And horrors for Toyota and BMW. Mystified by their lack of pace, all four cars are at the back of the grid. So much for my declaration on Wednesday that Trulli could win this race.

As we all know, qualifying is of huge importance in Monaco because it's so bleeding difficult to overtake. Kimi's car has KERS which would usually make him a threat, but he can't use it until three seconds after the start. That won't help him here, because it's a very short run down to Ste Devote. However, Jenson's starts haven't been blinding this year and Kimi has said he has nothing to lose because he's not in the running for the championship.

The weather is glorious today and I think it's most unlikely we'll see rain (at least, that's what my suede loafers hope). The best chance of a shake-up will come from a safety car and they are always quite popular around here.

So, I'm going to stick my neck out and make some podium postions:

1. Jenson Button (it's his race to lose)

2. Rubens Barrichello (should leapfrog Raikkonen in the pits)

3. Kimi Raikkonen (provided he can keep it out of the wall this year. Otherwise, Massa will be there to pick up the pieces, as it were).