The sum of quali

Valencia is a very difficult track to pass on, so quali is crucial. We knew Lewis would be a danger man at the start, thanks to his KERS, but starting on pole it's almost as if this race is a foregone conclusion. Or is it?

Rubens Barrichello has outclassed Jenson all weekend and starts P3. He's got four more laps of fuel on board than Lewis and three more than P2 man Kovalainen. On the face of it, Rubens has a winning strategy. However, if McLaren ask Heikki to slow Barrichello down on the first stink, Lewis could pull out the gap he needs.

Vettel starts 4th, Button 5th. Vettel should stop lap 17, so he's on a similar strategy to the McLarens. Button should stop lap 19 - one before Barrichello.

The pair of them may struggle to get on the podium today, but there could be a great battle between them for fourth.

Luca Badoer qualified last - In Q1 he was 2.9 seconds off the pace and 2.4 seconds off his team mate. I gather this is the first time a Ferrari has qualified last on merit in its 59 years of F1 history. It's hard for him having so little experience of this car, and none of this track, but the worrying thing was that we didn't see any improvement across the three practice sessions. If he's still three seconds off the pace on Friday in Spa the team must give serious thought to running another driver.

Marc Gene, Sebastien Bourdais and Nelson Piquet Jr are all candidates.

Anyway, my predictions for today are as follows:

1. Lewis Hamilton

2. Rubens Barrichello

3. Heikki Kovalainen