When I heard the story about the FIA investigating the cause and possible motivation of Nelson Piquet Jr's crash in Singapore last year, I thought it was a wind up. I left Spa quite early on Sunday - around 6pm - and read the beginnings of the story on the wire when I got home to Paris.
Nelson crashed on lap 13, bringing out the safety car just after Fernando Alonso had driven a short 12 lap first stint. It played into his hands perfectly and he was able to leapfrog the field and take victory.
Some are reporting of the conspiracy theories that quickly spread through the press room that day last September. But I don't think anyone at all took those theories seriously - it was all a bit of a joke 'Well done Nelson', Briatore must have said. 'Finally you've turned in a winning performance'. It seemed unthinkable that a team would be so desperate and calculating to have actually pulled off such a feat.
The fact that the FIA really are investigating, 12 months on, suggests that some substantial evidence has come to light. If they didn't check the radio traffic and telemetry on the Renault last time, they will now. Consensus is that the FIA have been alerted to Renault's guilty secret - if they are guilty, that is, and we must for the moment presume innocence - by Nelson Piquet, who remains vitriolic after his unceremonious sacking from the team, or some one close to him. That, at least, is the opinion of Bernard Charles Ecclestone.
Bernie spoke to The Times yesterday, and said two things. 1) This could force Renault out of F1 and 2) Piquet will be hard pressed to find employment in F1 again.
Bernie is stuck in a tricky personal situation here because Flavio Briatore and Max Mosley are two of his best mates - but they don't get along. Also, Nelson Piquet Senior is close to Bernie, having raced for Brabham back in the day. Bernie will likely take a step back, and not get too involved.
Dealing with point 2 first, that would be a shame as I'd like to see what Piquet could do in another team, a team in which he has the same opportunities as his team mate. I think he'd be a very good choice for Campos. He's got enough experience to contribute to the design of the car, and quick enough to develop it. If they got on, he's young enough to stick around for a decade. But Bernie's right - other team bosses will be scared of insubordination and blackmail if Piquet was the whistleblower. Nelson's a cat among pigeons.
Then again, if Renault ordered him to crash he should tell the FIA. He should have told them 12 months ago. He shouldn't have followed the order at all. But, then, he may not have had his contract renewed. It's easy to imagine the conversation, and the pressure Piquet was under. Here, all you have to do is take one for the team, you'll be fine. And we'll do the paper work straight afterwards, yeah? Next year will be your year, Nelson!
Point 1 has serious repercussions for the health of F1. Renault would be a big loss to the sport, though their position has always been delicate. If Carlos Ghosn pulls the plug, Briatore may well take over the team a la Brawn with the help of Russian rubles. At least they'll still be on the grid. But that'll diminish the strength of FOTA and it could be the straw that breaks Toyota's back. If Toyota pull out, the manufacturers will no longer be the driving force.
This investigation could set off dominos the likes of which we haven't seen before.
If Renault are found guilty of 'match fixing' then Renault may not even have the option to withdraw. They will be kicked out of the sport. And it would be hard to argue with a judgement like that. F1 is a dangerous sport at the best of times, and one with a huge amount of money riding on it. To order a driver to put his life and the lives of spectators at risk could result in criminal proceedings. This could be the biggest cheating scandal ever to hit the sport.
But while it may get ugly, the FIA need to tackle this issue head-on. The most damaging action of all would be to sweep it under the carpet.